Alberta Foothills Weather

Hot, Hot, Hot!

The past few days have been downright summerlike, teetering on the edge of 30C with a nice breeze. Haven’t seen a cloud of any type for two days now, the closest one is about 500 miles away.

The countryside has undergone a fantastic transformation this week, the lawn is suddenly lush and green, leaves are exploding everywhere and you can hear the wind again as the trees fill out. The air is full of insects of every kind, including the first hatch of mosquitos… hopefully this blast of heat will dry up a few of them before next week, and the rain that is forecast.

After another 30C smoker tomorrow, things are slated to cool down Sunday as a little low slides down from the north. The WRF and GFS forecast models are both showing some instability for Sunday afternoon, so perhaps something will brew up.
Next week looks wet.

Gotta love May!

Friday afternoon we took a quick spin out to Caroline and Tay River to check out the snow before it disappeared, and there was still a foot of it out there after a warm sunny day. It’s all gone now and everything is going green. All that moisture has had little impact on the rivers involved so far. A few small spikes on the Little Red Deer and Medicine rivers, but most of the melt must have soaked in. Should be a good spring runoff this year, the mountain peaks that can be seen from here have more snow on them than I’ve seen all winter.
It was a nice and warm weekend here with a thick cover of little popcorn cumulus almost the entire time. Zero precip and still waiting patiently for the first shaker of the season. I didn’t get a chance to peruse the forecast models this eve, but I heard mention somewhere of 25C for the near future?

The yard has really come alive after that nice drink last week, the leaves are popping out everywhere, perennials are poking up in their beds, and I’m going to have to dig the mower out soon. Gleniffer Lake is almost free of ice, Sylvan Lake has started to break up but is still covered.

3 feet of snow in Water Valley?!?

I’m quite impressed how well the forecast models came together on this storm and pinned the precip bullseye right where it happened. Still waiting for some updated snowfall totals from EC, but generally a stripe of 50+cm along the front range of the Rockies and the foothills from Grande Cache to Bragg Creek. Nordegg, Sundre, and basically anything west of Hwy.22 got a serious amount of snow. Calgary was right on the edge, 8-10cm with locally higher amounts to the west on the hills up to 20cm.
It will be interesting to see the impact of this on the Red Deer river, the James and Burnt Timber river basins both took a huge hit from this and they both feed the Red Deer. Might have to go for a spin tomorrow and see whats up out west.

Here’s a few pics from Anthony in Airdrie and a few screen captures from the Calgary news and The Weather Network.

Snow on the ground again.
After a disappointing, thunderstormless day of rain showers and wind around here yesterday, today is less than pleasant. Northeast wind in the 20-40km/h range at +2C with snow flurries, but hey, the grass is green where it isn’t white!
I haven’t been out to peek in the rain gauge yet, but we got a nice steady rain here for a few hours last night before it switched over to snow this morning. That should help to pop the leaves out and green things up.
The forecast models nailed this one pretty good, with all the heavy stuff to the west in the mountains and foothills. Looking at the AMA highway cams, the snow line runs from Edson on Hwy.16 to Cochrane on Hwy.1, snowing hard west of that and either drizzly or dry to the east.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:48 AM MDT THURSDAY 8 MAY 2008.
———————————————————————
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALBERTA…

SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
CITY OF CALGARY
AIRDRIE - COCHRANE - OLDS - SUNDRE
OKOTOKS - HIGH RIVER - CLARESHOLM
KANANASKIS - CANMORE
BANFF NATIONAL PARK
JASPER NATIONAL PARK
NORDEGG - FORESTRY TRUNK ROAD HIGHWAY 734
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE - CAROLINE.

HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
THE COLD UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SO JASPER, NORDEGG AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE REGIONS CAN EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS TO TAPER OFF.

SNOW IS OCCURRING IN THE BANFF, KANANASKIS AND AIRDRIE REGIONS WITH ABOUT 5 CENTIMETRES REPORTED SO FAR IN THE KANANASKIS REGION.

THE CITY OF CALGARY AND THE OKOTOKS REGION CAN EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW BECOMING HEAVY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE IN THE 10 TO 25 CENTIMETRES RANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

Updated @ 4pm

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:32 PM MDT WEDNESDAY 7 MAY 2008.
———————————————————————
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALBERTA…

SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= AIRDRIE - COCHRANE - OLDS - SUNDRE
=NEW= KANANASKIS - CANMORE
=NEW= BANFF NATIONAL PARK
JASPER NATIONAL PARK
NORDEGG - FORESTRY TRUNK ROAD HIGHWAY 734.

HEAVY SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AND REFORM OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL START OFF RAIN.
HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP IN COLD AIR, THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING IN THE JASPER AND NORDEGG REGIONS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 25 CENTIMETRES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THE BANFF REGION, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE KANANASKIS REGION AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AIRDRIE REGION RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THESE REGIONS CAN BE IN THE 10 TO 25 CENTIMETRES RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE UPPER LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

#################################################

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:34 AM MDT WEDNESDAY 7 MAY 2008.
———————————————————————
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ALBERTA…

SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= HINTON - GRANDE CACHE.

HEAVY SNOWFALL OF 10 TO 25 CENTIMETRES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

———————————————————————
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALBERTA…

SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= JASPER NATIONAL PARK
=NEW= NORDEGG - FORESTRY TRUNK ROAD HIGHWAY 734.

HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 25 CM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

==DISCUSSION==
A COLD UPPER TROUGH LADEN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL START OFF AS RAIN. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM PUMPS IN MORE COLD AIR THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 25 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING.

Since the last post it has been nothing but seasonal, boring and gray around here. A few small puffs and a bit of wind here and there, but most of the weekend was nice enough to enjoy out on the deck with friends. Everything around here is dusty dry and the farmers are out in full force tilling and seeding. I noticed today that our local ponds are still quite low even with that last shot of moisture.

To fend off the thunderstorm withdrawals I’ve been chasing along down in the states with some of the folks down there who are streaming live video of their pursuits through SevereStudios’ excellent live cam setup. Yesterday I was following along with David Drummond as he was dodging golf ball sized hail falling from a supercell near Roswell, New Mexico. Pretty amazing stuff to be sitting out here in the sticks with gray skies watching live tornado footage from 1500 miles away!

More interesting stuff appears to be on the way for us tomorrow and Thursday, with the best chance of the week for a rumbler tomorrow aft/eve, then depending on which forecast model you look at, a good soaker or dump of snow for the mountains and foothills for Thursday. A low sliding down the BC/AB border tomorrow is forecast to tighten up when it rolls out of the mountains somewhere between here and Okotoks, where it happens will dictate who gets what. The GFS has it forming over Lethbridge, the WRF has it around Sundre and the GEM closer to Calgary. The models agree most of the precip will be in the Rockies and foothills, the Limestone mountain area west of Caroline looks like the a good target. It will be interesting to see what pans out for the rest of us just to the east, will it be rain only here?

Goodbye April, I’m glad you are over with.

May Day was pretty nice here, reaching for 20C, a lot nicer than the 5C we were forecast to be.
The moisture didn’t make it much futher south than the Edmonton area and the cold air that was expected didn’t show up either. A bit of wind and a few drops of rain were all we got here and about the most exciting thing I have seen since the last post was a faint sun halo this afternoon. Ah well, May is always a better month for interesting weather around here anyway.
The next two days look stagnant, but maybe a rumble for Sunday afternoon?

Spring need not be bland in Alberta.
A week ago it was -10C with a windchill of -20. Today, we made 20C, feeling around 70 degrees F warmer.
The three foot snowdrifts in the yard have evaporated and only a trace remains of the biggest ones. No running water or giant puddles laying around, it simply disappeared into the ground and sky. Gravel roads are dusty already.
The nearly week long cold snap froze all the little ponds back over and I think poor ol mother goose to the north may have lost her nest already as the coyotes were able to get back out on the ice. The tree buds of the yard also took a hit from the deep freeze, those that are just about to pop have frozen black tips at the least.

And it’s not over yet.
A similar setup to last week could give us another good dump of snow in Alberta over the next few days.
A mess is pushing in from the west, with a weak low forecast to pass over us tomorrow and start spreading the moisture to the south and north, with us in a dry slot. Some good amounts for eastern Alberta from Medicine Hat up to St.Paul tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, it will be interesting to see what type of precip everybody gets.
The nasty northwest wind makes a return Wednesday morning, rushing into a low forecast to develop in the Oyen area that starts wrapping the moisture back around to us Wednesday and Thursday. The last forecast models I looked at have moved the goodies west considerably from last night’s run that had southwestern Alberta missing out on most of it. The last GEM run has the Edmonton area picking up 20-30mm of something on Wednesday with the temps right around the freezing mark and 2-10mm for southwest Alberta. It should be snow for us Thursday morning with temps dropping and the wind howling. GEM says another 10-15 for us and possibly more to the south as the precip hangs around Lethbridge for Friday too.

At least it will be brief this time.

After being stuck in the yard since Monday, the grader came along today and opened up the road this afternoon. Even with the temperatures hanging around the freezing mark yesterday, most places where there were only a few cm of snow have melted off already, leaving only the big drifts which also sank quite a bit over the past few days. There were still a few 3-4 footers on our road to the south when a 4×4 came chewing through at the perfect time, just as I was out for a stroll with the hounds.

It didn’t take much of a tour around the area to find some monstrous snowdrifts still plugging up the roads. Some real traffic stoppers out there. The ditches are full of hard snow, but most of the fields have only a few cm of cover, and the tilled ones are back to black already.

As I type there is another patch of crud moving in from the west. Not much is expected for precip but whatever flakes do fall won’t matter much as the weekend forecast now has us warming up nicely and all this white stuff will disappear quickly.

Yuck!
Since the last post it has been nothing but ugly around here with the northwest wind howling constantly. This morning has been the worst so far with gusts pushing 70km/h making the end of the driveway hard to see through the blowing snow.
Impossible to tell how much snow has fallen since the last post with it blowing all over the place, but there is more than yesterday and some big drifts out there. The cover is about as good as we had at any time through the winter.
April has really turned out to be a crummy month and it’s not done yet. Looks like no real warmup on the way until next week and another slow moving mess pushing into cold Alberta from the west for Thursday/Friday means more flakes for somebody, depends which model you look at. Some say to the south, some say to the north, but it’ll be around here somewhere.
I’d just like this wind to shove off. It has built some lovely snow sculptures that should look quite amazing when the sun comes out and gives us some shadows.