Alberta Foothills Weather

June 29 – Waiting patiently for the eruption

All the goodies of June have passed us by so far, but there are a few hours left. Nothing but sog and mosquitoes since the last post, the jet stream is toying with us.
Being on the cool rainy side has left the landscape around here as wet as it can get, ditches are like jungle but a lot of fields are very water stressed. Huge patches of yellow where the new crop was standing in water are going to put a dent in the totals come harvest time, there are still a lot of big puddles where there shouldn’t be any at this time of the year. It’s wet.
Crops that had a good start before the deluge came are now exploding with growth and peak evapotranspiration is just around the corner, all we need is a bit of heat and BOOM.
The hefty jet that left us wet really lit the goods up on the warm side, the southeast inflow was strong enough to blow a few tornado alley chasers across the border looking for tubes. Most of them found what they were looking for eventually, in Saskatchewan. The main reason for this post was to park a few loops of the event for the record. I’m not sad this missed us, huge hail in the Taber area, big hail in a lot of other places, 100kmh winds.

The long range models, as in beyond two days, I do not trust in July. Well, anytime really.
At this time of the year the focus is on the 500mb jet. The heart of this upper level river of wind is the place where bad things happen. Without sufficient flow aloft to ventilate, storms choke on their own spew. When the jet is flying out of the southwest and the surface winds are flying from the southeast, the setup is there for big, ugly, rotating storms.
With so much wet in play to the east/southeast, feeding up to the foothills and pooling there, storms could get crazy this year. If the jet plays. Even a little bit.

It may even try to play today.
Whenever it decides it’s ready, I’ll be waiting.
The surprise days are so much more fun.

Soggy fields and softie storms north of Olds, AB - June 29, 2012
IR loop June 25-27, 2012Canadian prairie RADAR loop June 25-27, 2012Stratospheric storm tops south of the border, 12:20am June 26, 201224 hour precip for June 25, 26, 27, 20122012 June precipitation

One Response to “June 29 – Waiting patiently for the eruption”

  1. 1
    Jesse Says:

    When do you think anything severe will be possible near Calgary ? The only good storms we have had so far was on June 6 with the Taber tornado and the supercell in Calgary.

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